The May 2007 Election has different meanings for stakeholders - in the Senate, the House of Representatives and the Local Officials.

The Senate results is really a national referendum on GMA; the House of Representatives whether GMA can be impeached in July; the Local Officials whether they have delivered the services for their constituents in the home front.

Barring massive cheating, recent surveys show the Opposition can unload a 12-0 bomb senate win over the administration while the House of Representatives will be a war of attrition whether the magic number to impeach a president will be mustered by the Opposition. On the local level, people by now know if their current incumbent officials are worthy to remain there - regardless of the national issues.

Thus we foresee that even in places where people would vote 12-0 for the Senate Opposition, the administration candidates on the local level may still win.

Two acts of desperation by the administration - on the Senate front - confirm how close it is to the claws of defeat. The "wild card" proposal of outgoing City of Manila Mayor Lito Atienza to grant pardon to detained deposed president Erap Estrada for "national reconciliation" is one case in point. The other is the rather stupid proposal for a "Unity" ticket for the Senate - to include perceived and real oppositionists in the administration slate (alongside).

It is stupid because the Opposition candidates winning in the "Unity" ticket cannot guarantee their political loyalty post-elections; the Opposition does not see why they should coalesce considering the revealed survey sentiments - why indeed be stung by the kiss of death by embracing the sponsorship of the GMA Administration?

More than goons, gold will flow out of the nation's ears for the May 2007 elections - which we caution is hyper-inflationary and highly immoral. The people are watching three possible financial leakages to "buy" the May 2007 elections: the so-called P4.4-billion feeding program of rice for Grade One public school students, the P1.2-billion Farmer Loans program and the "savings" incurred by a Government Budget that assumed the exchange rate in paying our debts is at P53:US$1 (which is not realistic at this point).

The possible "savings" in the interest payment of debts for the nation would be P6.6 billion at P50 (exchange rate) and P8.6 billion at P48 (exchange rate). Where will this "savings" go - to win the 2007 elections by foul means?

Among the winning "opposition" Senate candidates are Legarda, Sotto, Lacson, Villar, Pangilinan, Recto, Escudero, Joker Arroyo, Allan Cayetano, Guingona, Osmeña J and Koko Pimentel. The surveys say only Mike Defensor of the administration had an outside chance of making it to the Senate if elections were held now. That's a chilling realization for the Palace - if the senate race is considered a referendum on GMA.

That's worse than a 65% "want-GMA-out" ratio.

According to pundits, the cost of getting elected in the Senate is prohibitive: P800 million to be among the top three (excepting perhaps Legarda, Lacson and Sotto), P400 million for a winning slot and P200 million among the last three places. From the 10th to 12th places, the probability of being "junked" or "counted out" by even one's party-mates becomes real.

The political theory that even if brand X (administration senate candidates) are not good, the Brand Y (Opposition) must be liked by the electorate does not hold too much water in a Senate election (where one can liberally choose 12) compared to a three-way presidential slam-bang.

The other issue that the Opposition candidates are a "chopsuey" of political contrasts who are sleeping with one another just to get elected (despite differences in ideologies) is not seen by the electorate that way. The EDSA I and II revolts, in fact, were not peopled, likewise, by politically homogeneous nor morally clean individuals - but there was a massive political change in the Palace. In the same manner, that the fact that there are sinners among us who sit side by side during Holy Mass does not invalidate the cause for which we Catholics are hearing Mass for.

There are sinners and saints - on both Administration and Opposition - people will just have to vote how these individuals stand on certain issues today. The well-meaning suggestions of some columnists like a Quiroz or an Esposo to make a political "third force" of thoroughly clean individuals is a dreamer's dream - given the practicality of Philippine politics on the issue of logistics and networking.

The latest spin of the Administration to sell the May polls as a third match of GMA versus Erap trilogy is only an exciting political theorem - which the masses do not see in the same vein. So much horse trading has gone the last few years as to make that distinction of allies between the two political icons that distinctively material.

The way we figure, only the local officials' fight will not be somehow affected by the Great Political Divide that separates the nation today because of issues of GMA legitimacy, corruption, extra-judicial killings, fascist tendencies and opportunism.

The Administration fired the first linchpin of its "psychological" campaign by encouraging and "abetting" the strengthening of the peso to P48 and the 10-year high level of the stock market - which they claim is reflected of confidence in the economy.

Well, our forecast is that after the December-January massive entry of OFW inflows for the holidays and the weakening of exporters (due to uncompetitive foreign exchange rate), the peso could go back to P50 by April and May. After the weak economy's (5.5% growth) negative impact on corporate income is known by the First Quarter 2007, the investors will also engage a massive sell-out and bring back the stock market to its more "unenhanced" realistic levels before the May polls.

Sorry to say, but the Administration will have its hands full - in parrying the left jabs and uppercuts of the Opposition whether on the economic, social and political fronts.

The churches have long been peeved by the authoritarian, devious and malicious mode of conduct that the Administration had shown in issues of containing dissent and effecting charter changes. The battle lines have long been drawn.

But better will its lot be for the Administration to lose - in a fair and clean election - that to win in a tainted one. Any attempt by Government not to reform the "corrupt" Comelec and thwart the will of the people (as will be shown by the independent surveys - right before the election) through fraud and coercion will be politically costly - even fatally so.

Producing fraudulent election results, after the "Hello Garci" controversy, is worse than a No Election (No-El) scenario. We wouldn't encourage the Government to even consider thinking about it.

Pray and brace yourself for a turbulent May 2007 polls.