Barring a shift to a Parliamentary form of Government, the Senate 2007 polls is a prelude for the bigger Battle for the 2010 presidential election.

Since Philippine politics is characterized by "no permanent friendships, only permanent interests" - the homestretch of the May 2007 polls will be punctuated by two phenomena. One, inclusion in sample ballots of local political kingpins. Two, the junking of rivals even within the same party.

There are two battleground arenas. One is for the top positions that give the topnotchers an inside track, at least, on the 2010 presidential election, whether they planned it or not. The other is for the last 4 positions (8th to 12th Senate slots) which could mark victory or defeat for statistically winnable candidates.

Based on the surveys, only (7) to include: Legarda, Villar, Lacson, Escudero, Cayetano (GO), Pangilinan (GO-Independent) and Recto (TU) appear as shoo-ins for a senate win. The last (4) slots are still up for grabs with breath-taking changes taking place as the D-Day election nears.

With President GMA ending her legal term by 2010, analysts are looking at the strange brew being cooked at the so-called "Wednesday Group" of the Philippine Senate, peopled by the likes of Villar, Arroyo, Pangilinan and Recto and Noli de Castro (before he assumed the vice presidency in 2004). The five had sworn, every Wednesday meeting then, that they will be like the "five musketeers" forever. "One for all, all for one" as D' Artagnan of the famous Three Musketeers fame would tell the world.

The politically astute will notice that De Castro openly endorsed - only - the hand of Recto for this senate race - indicting at the very least his (Recto's) ascendancy as a vice presidential potential. Arroyo (Joker) has no such ambition, given his age.

Villar, for the longest time (since after the Erap impeachment) has harbored presidential ambitions and with his wealthy treasure chest (the richest senator, remember?) and a senate presidency as credentials, he is a presidential timber. He, therefore, wants to top the 2007 polls in order to prove his point.

Between Villar and Recto's (Nacionalista Party) and Pangilinan's (Liberty Party_Drilon Wing), the NP has a better chance to get an administration's blessings for a tie-up for the 2010 Battle Royale - given the Palace and Drilon's seething animosity against each other. The assumption here is that Vice President De Castro, realizing his personal limitations, exits gracefully as a non-controversial performing vice-president by 2010.

He will have gotten a secure place in history.

That drives the surging independent Pangilinan as a vice presidential timber - a perfect match for the ever popular Mar Roxas (LP), a senate topnotcher for the 2010 derby. A Villar-Recto and Roxas-Pangilinan in 2010, interestingly enough, would have Cynthia Villar (and her enormous wealth), Vilma Santos, Korina Sanchez and Sharon Cuneta in the thick of the fight - for reasons you know.

The obvious dark horse is survey front-running candidate Loren Legarda who worries everyone - in both administration and opposition - who nurtures presidential goals.

Legarda has topped SWS survey "trust" rating in 2006 and 2007, that included all known politicians (including the Wednesday Group), VP De Castro, Mar "Mr. Palengke" Roxas, former presidents Estrada, Ramos and Cory Aquino, cabinet members, the military and the judiciary. Seven out of ten Filipinos trust Loren. She also topped the 1998 senate polls in her first try with an unprecedented 15 million votes and became the first woman senate majority floor leader.

There are efforts - from the Palace and even the Trojan Horses within the Opposition - to prevent her from topping the senate race which will install her as a prime candidate for the presidency in 2010. A worn-out black propaganda indicating Legarda had authored a bill reducing the salaries of teachers (who are poll-watchers) and the police (keepers of the election peace) have been peddled again from the ashes of the 2004 battle.

Junking, "dagdag-bawas" and exclusion/inclusion in sample ballots of local bets are on-going - some are openly discussed, others in cloistered halls, dark rooms, through intermediaries and in church pews, good gracious.

Over the weekend senator Villar was said to be junked by pro-Erap followers for allegedly distributing sample ballots in Bulacan that included him as Lead Senator followed by Arroyo and Pangilinan and nine other TU senatorial bets. No Opposition candidates in those Villar sample ballots.

The tension has especially risen since last week's SWS survey said 4 out of 10 Filipinos believe GMA will cheat for the Team Unity senate bets. In fairness, that is just the mindset of Filipinos, and therefore whether GMA in fact cheats for TU and thereby permanently erode the credibility of the 2007 polls (a political and economic suicide) is a matter of conjecture.

Meantime, a foreign survey group (contrasted to locals like SWS, Ibon and Pulse Asia) confirmed the trend regarding the winnable Top Seven candidates in a recent survey with the following results: Legarda (64%), Villar (51%), Lacson (46%), Escudero (46%), Pangilinan (44%), Recto (43%) and Cayetano (41%).

The last two rounds in the proverbial political oval will take place in the next two weeks of May culminating in the May 14 where at least 80% of the 45 million registered voters will cast their choices.

The Senate focus will be: who will be No. 1 and who will get the 8th to 12th senatorial slots. And don't forget 2010.