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It
was funny, if it was not more tragic, that PGMA and JDV (last
year) fed the dung to Filipinos that we are on the road to
being a First World Country.
It
was vaudeville - a show, a circus - to desensitize the current
hunger of a huge chunk of Pinoys who live on P45 a day for
a family of four.
The
PGMA Team (last week) then crowed in Tokyo, that the administration
had created 6 million jobs abroad from this country that cannot
nurture their dreams of economic atability. One of eight Filipinos
is an OFW, good gracious, at a high social cost of broken
marital relationships and children growing up under single
parents.
There
are no meaningful jobs here because investments are scarce
in this least preferred investment-nation in the Far East.
It is so scarce that the president will scamper for a photo
opportunity when an existing investor like Texas Instruments
merely decides to expand a decades-long business in the country.
There
was something uncanny about the timing of business events
immediately following the elections. Even before the senatorial
election results were settled and some critical local areas
remained under turbulent protests (from both sides), the Team
had already announced that the fresh mandate of two thirds
of Congress and majority of local LGUs are an endorsement
of the Filipino people of an extremely unpopular president.
"Orderly"
was the Team's description of an election marred by massive
vote-buying marked by even fake peso bills (shades of Marcos'
stealthy win over Osmena in 1969 that shot inflation skywards)
even in Bohol. "Generally peaceful" it described
an election where people, driven by extreme poverty auctioned
their soul and bartered their dignity for a few pesos more
during the polls.
"Democracy
at work" was how spin masters described Philippine elections
which, two weeks after, had not finished the manual counting
- a process that India could have done in one day with more
voters there.
The
Team trumpeted the Philippine stock market Index shot an all-time
high in 80 years, attracting foreign reportedly investors.
The problem with an administration (whose legitimacy is still
under doubt) without clear long-term vision is it becomes
opportunistic. And therefore attracts the same (opportunistic)
kind of business investors (primarily to the stock market)
to have short-term goals. They bring in hot money in pursuit
of quick profits and liquidity - and will not invest in capital
goods and equipment, that are the ones which create jobs.
Let
us watch the billions in Japanese investment supposedly coming
in the country after PGMA's visit. Already the very strengthening
of the peso to the dollar (P45:US$1) had precisely made more
expensive the cost of doing business in the Philippines-in
the sense that you need more dollars now (to invest here)
than otherwise (at a different exchange rate).
The
Team prided itself that the Philippine currency had the second
greatest appreciation of currency in the region to date. The
problem with that is too steep a climb (P55 to P45) or (20%
appreciation) in so short a time is a sign of volatility and
not stability of currency that investors, exporters and importers
(both) would rather have.
With
the 20% currency hike, exporters are losing their shirts.
That is the reason the Government established the P280-Million
Export Promotion Fund to cushion the impact of the currency
play. Let us not forget that only our top exporters (electronics
and garments) are partly insulated because of their import-dependency
in raw materials.
The
(majority) 80% of exporters made up of small and medium firms
are the ones in deep shit because of their local content.
Meantime,
the Government is encountering Customs revenues (collection
shortfall) since there is less peso equivalent of imported
items that are now subjected to tax.
Besides,
inflation is soon to rise to 2.8% (Banko Sentral's own admission)
because of high energy cost and the summer drought.
These
sudden surges in foreign exchange rate and the stock market
have been broadcast by the Administration as indicators of
powerful Philippine growth. ADB (Asian Development Bank) thinks
otherwise since our GDP (Gross Domestic Product) had been
hovering at 6% p.a., a percentage short of the magic number
of 7% required for a meaningful impact on the poverty-stricken
populace.
This
emphasis on abstract macroeconomic concepts does not impress
Juan de la Cruz any as he throws away his last Lucky Me noodles
- tired of his daily diet of more of the same.
The
impetus to make our agricultural industries more efficient
is more important in a country as dependent as it is on agriculture.
The
move to make LGUs understand fiscal planning and make them
fund generators and managers is more crucial.
Educating
the fisher folks, farmers, sari sari store and small businessmen
on credit discipline and granting them supervised credit (at
subsidized interest rate) is more "filter down"
than those propagandized by Makati and Ortigs-based economic
financial spin masters.
This
public affairs foray into the minds of Filipinos to cast their
lot on very "flash in the pan," ephemeral gains
in the exchange rate, stock market and so-called foreign direct
investments is a high priced propaganda tool.
Because
the consequences of rising expectations - encouraged by such
propaganda - only heightens Juan de la Cruz' frustration once
the mirage disappears and he is back to his daily Lucky Me
Noodles through every day of his wretched life.
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