The inconvenient truth is that everyone moves for political convenience.

The last few weeks, GMA's political time clock was running full speed. NBN-ZTE Broadband, Cyberband for Education and the Cash Buffet in Malacañang on October 11, scandalized the nation including the conservative Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines.

But it seems on the 11th hour, the Queen of Machiavellian ways did a Cinderella finish.

Rather than risk a political earthquake on November 11 when the extremely popular deposed president Erap would walk like a common criminal to the Bilibid, GMA pardoned Erap.

Her "upside" in the equation was that the presidential pardon will quiet Erap and his followers momentarily or at least allow GMA to stay up to 2010.

The "downside" of the political calculus was that the pardon won't win her over Erap fans mainly because in the eyes of the people the pardonee (Erap) was "guiltless" and therefore nothing to be pardoned for. In fact, they would say GMA owed Erap by "stealing" his presidency in 2002 and worse, her administration racked up more economic and political crimes that dwarfed (no pun, there) Erap's so-called offenses for which he was "in house arrest" in a Tanay rest house.

First, the Palace required Erap to vow not to run for public office as a condition for the pardon and second, tempted him to co-optation by suggesting he be made the Administration's "anti-poverty" Czar if his heart was really for the poor.

Contrary to what the Erap jokes suggests about his stupidity, Erap did not fall for the "poverty czar" trap and vowed to remain Opposition. Moreover, Erap's camp immediately floated the Jinggoy Estrada-Jojo Binay (Uno President) presidential tandem in 2010 while Erap flaunted his undiminished masa support by appearing in public in Tondo to the shouts of Erap pa Rin!

Famously known for his political and military stratagems, FVR earlier took an anti-Erap-pardon stance while his altar boy Joe de Venecia took the pro-pardon position and test the waters without making Lakas Party look foolish by virtue of the people's reaction to the presidential pardon.

FVR had earlier warned GMA (and a veiled warning to Erap) that a freed Joseph Estrada will try to bring down the Arroyo Palace.

Having realized that his sixth political sense was right that they were finding a political brickwall in a freed Erap, FVR and JDV had no choice but mend fences with Malacañang or else face political extinction - in 2010, if not sooner.

So last Saturday night, despite the daggers drawn to each other's belly, JDV and GMA in the presence of the Elder Statesman (FVR) appeared in public (media photo opportunity) to signify that they have rejoined forces to do battle versus Erap's Brigade in 2010.

They had both done so and "saved the Queen" at the height of the Garci scandal by staying steadfastly behind the throne of GMA.

In both occasions, the inconvenient truth is, that they were acts for political survival.

If the Palace had seriously tried to unseat JDV as Speaker, the Opposition and Party List groups would have sided with the Speaker and foil his impeachment. Then, together they will launch a "serious' impeachment bid against the President because the Senate will clearly move for her departure from the Palace on constitutional ground rules on impeachment.

So the Saturday Night Fever at the Palace was really a frantic effort to prevent a political holocaust the coming week when Congress was to open.

But the marriage of convenience, as all such marriages go, will not last long.

With the 2010 battle lines fully drawn, Kingmaker Erap himself astutely dismisses the Jinggoy-Binay tandem as just a trial balloon and that the Opposition was just as ready to field heavyweight contender senators Villar, Roxas, Legarda and Lacson.

Indeed if a snap election was held today, any of the four Opposition bets (without a Garci and Bedol) will beat any Palace bet (from Noli de Castro to Gordon to Pacquiao) because there is just too much political baggage to carry coming out of GMA's administration. Not necessarily that the Opposition bets are really better qualified.

Part of this growing despair about the grim political fortunes in 2010 could be the appointment of a so-called protege of the infamous Garcillano as Comelec Commissioner in Muslim Moslemen Macaramdon Sr. instead of feeling the pulse of the people how they wanted to reform the shattered image of the Comelec after the scandalous behaviors of its inhabitants like Chairman Ben "Wack Wack" Abalos, "Hello" Garcillano and "Lintang" Bedo (who is now AWOL - armed but not dangerous, according to the PNP).

Macaramdon's bio-data showed he was appointed by GMA in October 2003 as Region 4 Presiding judge in Iligan City - a city where GMA spent some of her younger years.

Since the time of Presidents Qurino to Marcos, the Comelec had at least one Opposition Commissioner to preserve the integrity of the vote-counter of the nation.

The indecent haste to appoint Macaramdon today to the exclusion of highly qualified Rufus Rodriguez (former Immigration Commissioner) and Rene Saguisag (former Senator) could be a bad omen of the shape of things to come in the Comelec.

Is this how desperate 2010 looks to the Palace today?

FVR, your favorite strategist is not about to throw his Havana cigar down. Yesterday, he invited three former presidents Cory Aquino, himself and Erap to have a reunion and forge a "common agenda" with GMA for the country's future.

No one is again falling for that trap.

Former President Aquino had called for GMA's resignation after Garci's Scandal and Erap was reported to have supported the Opposition's supplemental bid to the Impeachment case filed by lawyer Pulido. Other supplements were to follow.

Besides, if all four presidents sign the futuristic Strategic Direction of the Philippines, how can (Cory and Erap) therefore criticize their own handiwork when the political campaign begins in earnest by the end of 2009 for the 2010 polls?

But the options are not all lost for the Palace. Analysts say that the cash gifts to the congressmen and governors in the October 11 was partly to win their hearts - just in case there is a call to close ranks and forge a unified stand for a Charter Change and prevent the Administration's impending debacle at the 2010 polls.

On page 12 of the November 5 issue of The Philippine Star, it ran an unqualified news item that all 150 congressmen who attended the October 11 Palace breakfast and the governors who attended the afternoon caucus got P500,000. They did not come necessarily in the form of Gift Bags (from National Bookstore) but were somehow credited or given in some other form in another day.

Are all or some of the above inconvenient truths? Or speculations based on half-truths?

We believe our Chronicle readers, over these years, are learning to discern truth from fiction. They need not be told in unequivocal terms. What do you think?

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