It can be said that GMA may have won the battle, but Erap won the war.

When President GMA granted Executive Clemency (Pardon) to convicted plunderer former President Erap Estrada, ordinary folks thought Erap yielded to the power of the Presidency. On the contrary.

As we know, in spiritual and mortal terms, pardon (as in the confessional) can only be given if the applicant (a) admits the guilt (b) feels remorse over the deed (c) makes restitution or restoration (d) and promises not to repeat the offense.

In the case of Erap, he never admitted his crime and therefore cannot feel remorse nor promise not to repeat what he has not done. All except the restoration of about P1-billion in cash from jueteng, tobacco excise and stock market kickbacks plus a string of prime real estate assets (Erap claims he does not own) will be forfeited in favor of the Government.

So three of the four conditions Erap refused to meet but GMA pardoned him anyway. Some editorial called the Executive Clemency an act of indecent haste. Why was GMA falling all over herself to grant the pardon the day Erap's lawyers decided to cancel their appeal for reconsideration of the "Guilty" verdict?

Mastering the art of political survival, GMA - the crowned Princess Machiavelli of Philippine politics, knew the political disaster awaiting her the day the ever-popular movie star steps in orange clothes to Muntinlupa. We stand by our past prognosis that if a one-on-one election was held today, Erap would beat GMA 3:1 (without Garci and Bedol).

Instead of begging, Erap (de facto) demanded (instead) the terms of his pardon - and made Erap (pardonee) the real King and GMA (pardoner), the lameduck Queen.

Ironically, it was Erap who was negotiating from a position of strength.

In her political calculus, GMA had already discounted the fallout she will suffer for the Pardon in her quest to endorse her candidate-protege in 2010 but she had no choice.

She has to live today - just to live another day.

Another political faux pas like physically jailing Erap among the scums of the earth in the Bilibid while her ailing mother was dying in a San Juan hospital would have been a public relations nightmare GMA could no longer afford after ZTE and Palace pay-offs.

GMA may not have survived that kind of political upheaval.

It is therefore not curious that among the four reasons advanced by GMA for her pardon is that Erap had promised to end his political career and not run for public office. That just confirmed what the Palace was deathly afraid of.

Slyly, Erap joked he could change his mind about not running for office. Worse, he could be the Kingmaker that he is fit to be (given his 70 years age) and support a candidate that will depose GMA and her minions in 2010 or even earlier. Remember Erap was vocal in saying he will fight for the poor and against corruption. That's the clue.

And with that country's ill-repute as Asia's most corrupt nation, even a blind Erap can find a corrupted deal and corrupt officials just by strolling on the streets of Manila.

Then he has the reason to call to arms.

That is what makes FVR, the war-time strategist, squirm in his seat and swallow his tobacco. He sees the danger and has cautioned GMA about making the Erap pardon so quickly. FVR has got a point.

And he is worried that by 2010, GMA will be so decimated by negative issues, her candidate will be inoculated with a death syringe and Erap or his anointed will be smelling roses on the road to the presidency. Where would that indeed leave the clique of FVR-JDV-Ermita and the Lakas gang by 2010?

A political divorce of Lakas and Kampi in 2010 will make the road to Mendiola a walk in the park for the Erap-influenced Opposition by 2010.

That is why just last week, the administration Coalition had to show a "picture of a united force" by feigning unity - because the political tidal wave was so strong.

Together, they could survive this - separated, they will fall apart - dead on arrival at the political morgue.

But the Coalition is (certainly) breaking because the rift is deep and irreversible - no matter how they publicly disclaim such. GMA had shouted down the Speaker JDV a couple of weeks ago and they had (covertly) threatened each other with impeachment. They had to "appear" to have closed ranks - otherwise the possibility of them both getting the ax could become imminent.

On the other hand, FVR (Lakas Chair Emeritus) reportedly minced no words to castigate the President and bluntly told her recently that "before you begin to talk of reforming others and other institutions, you have to reform yourself first." Wow.

Then the Speaker JDV, who is not your idea of the Immaculate Conception presented an Anti-Corruption Agenda to GMA last week, supposedly as a take-off point to a 2010 Grand Vision. How long can these spurned lovers stay in bed? How long can they masquerade this charade?

With the Ruling Coalition waiting for D-Day that the fragile bubble will burst, a politically free Erap (with the demise of FPJ) will certainly now be the Political Bossman and the 2010 Kingmaker. Shaking of boots or rattling of sabers?

Shaking of boots we can already hear without placing our ears on the ground. What is fearful and fearsome is when the Opposition electoral sweep of 2010 becomes inevitable - some of those who have plenty to hide in this Administration - military and politicians - may concoct a game plan to preempt that and create chaos.

Chaos - bombings and assassinations here and there - will then force the Men on the Horseback to gallop and justify extra-constitutional means to restore order to a chaos they had created themselves.

That's a real political dynamite - that will not be taken well by the international community.

That would be worse than GMA at her worst. God save the Queen?

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