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We are adherents to that school of thought that: food (rice), medicines (health insurance and cheap ones) and shelter should be every government's primary lookout in welfare economics.

Unfortunately, it seems many administrations (especially this one of GMA) looked the other way - and misprioritized its mandate for government. Moreover, it had failed in its predictive calculus to find that the rice shortage could happen.

Food riots recently exploded in four countries and Haiti's Prime Minister Jacques Alexis had to resign because of it. There seems no quick fix in sight for the staple (rice) problem and may really take two years for anything to stabilize (if at all).

But as early as 2005, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced: as near as 2006, rice stocks will drop by 30%. By 2007, global rice consumption hit 429 million metric tons from 418 million metric tons in 2006. USDA likewise forecast that by 2006 the rice stock: user ratio will plummet from 18.4 15 years back to a dangerous level of 10.6. Was our Economist-President and her bright boys sleeping on this one?

After all, it doesn't take a Wharton whiz kid to figure out that the Philippines, small as it is, was the 8th largest consumer of rice in the world as late as 2003 behind China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand and Burma. The difference was that most of them (above RP) were nearly self- sufficient or were even exporting rice abroad. Not us.

Let's face it, the past four administrations (Aquino, Ramos, Estrada and Arroyo) never sufficiently planned for this one - grave thought for this obvious need for a stable supply of rice which is a staple food for about 89 million Filipinos. This in spite of the fact that the Philippines is blessed with hectares of rich agricultural land.

In fairness to Ferdinand Marcos, in 9 of his 12 years rule, the Philippines even exported more rice than it imported (1968 to 1970) and (1978-1983). There was no danger then that RP would have insufficient rice supply. In those years, in fact, agri-scientists from abroad came over to Los Banos to study our hybrid seeds and manner of rice plantation and propagation.

In the years after Marcos (1986 - 2007) RP exported only 177,000 metric tons of rice and imported a whooping 15.8 million metric tons.

Today, in fact - believe it or not - RP is the world's biggest rice importer. In the GMA era of 2002-2007, the country imported 8.5 million metric tons of rice and exported only 1% of that total. Meantime, rampant "rice smuggling" has been observed through our rugged, jagged shorelines of more than 7,000 islands.

Why did this administration allow this to happen? Didn't it calculate the horrible damage that a rice-dependent nation who imports a lot of it can be afflicted with during food shortages that we are now experiencing globally? Were we purposely allowed to deteriorate into a rice import-dependent status by unseen hands?

Or if we are so poor in our predictive analysis - despite the advancement of econometrics science - what shortage we will fall prey to. Fertilizer? Water? Corn?

What's next?

Thirty percent of the cost of producing palay comes from fertilizer.

Now the giant China which supplies 20% of inorganic fertilizer of the world recently slapped a 100% increase in tariff, making it absolutely, resoundingly expensive. RP retaliated by trying a ban on exportation of sulfuric acid and sulfur (by products of copper smelting) - which are important inputs for the manufacture of fertilizers. Can we really win this pissing war for long against the economic giants? Where is WTO?

What about water supply? Corn supply? Has anybody really told us what to expect next?

But worse than predictive myopia, is the anemia in the response to the rice crisis by Government.

Everyone and his driver know by now where the P700-million fertilizer of Mr. Jocjoc Bolante went to in the election year of 2004. Every businessman and economist know (NEDA through then secretary Neri) said there are many overpriced irrigation dams currently built in the country (around P3 billion to P4 billion in overprice) and he tried to stop one right here in Bohol - overpriced by over a billion pesos. Whoa.

Now Government is building more of the same. Palace barker Cerge Remonde gleefully announced there will be P4 billion more spent for mega irrigation dams this year and hear this. Another P3 billion will be used to rehabilitate other dams in the country.

"Rehabilitate" simply means, some of them damn dams already overpriced - could not even function without billions of funds for rehabilitation again. This is pure injury added to injury. Are the Malinao and Bayongan dams part of these inefficient, ineffective dams build on loans to be paid by the Filipino people for generations?

These days, we hear of Government tactical moves to curtail the horrifying effects of a possible rice shortage. That is fine - and we should all support them, if sound and good for the majority of Filipinos.

But in strategic terms, we believe one can address the rice problem over the long term by addressing it both from the demand and the supply side.

For instance, there are just too many mouths to feed in this country at 89 million folks - and 100 million by 2010, my goodness. The population growth rate of 2.1% (2007) though an improvement from 2.5% is still the highest in the Far East. We need Government to place its heart at the movement to stop population growth.

Finally, it's really not so much of a rice shortage as it is a shortage of income, as they say. Beyond the NFA rice which is only 20% of total supply sold in the market, many cannot afford a P25 per kilo of rice everyday in their wretched lives.

The knee jerk reaction of government was to increase government employee wages by 10% and asking the Regional Wage Boards to legislate salary hikes in the private sector.

Banks like the Standard Charter had warned this can cause a serious "homegrown inflation spiral" (notice the shocking 6.4% inflation rate for March 2008) and can even add more misery to all (especially the poor) because this will raise the prices of all other goods aside from rice. The all-time high of US$117 per barrel of oil price and the impending USA recession are no help either way.

Employees are raging for over P100 a day hike in wages. But an economist-professor from the University of the Philippines had aptly warned that the overheated economy can only sustain a P25 a day hike in wages - beyond which companies can collapse - causing more unemployment. Pushing us from frying pan to the fire, good gracious.

This is no longer political noise as GMA had often complained. This is one dragon of an economic problem that the Economist-President has to slay fast and furiously.

GMA is already short of political capital as her latest SWS acceptance rating of 26% has so eloquently stated. Adding another major malady - like a full-blown rice crisis - can threaten even her stay in the Palace.

Prime Minister Jacques Alexis of Haiti, remember?