(We first met the author of this commentary in Bangkok . Felicito Payumo was then serving his second of three terms as representative for Bataan 's first district.. He worked as Chair and Administrator of Subic Bay Metropolitan .Authority. "Tong" Payumo allowed us to abridge and publish this insightful piece. -- JLM )

"I visited Joe de Venecia morning after that fateful "night of a hundred knives". We were together for 12 years in the House. But I never visited when he was Speaker.

Better that I saw him when I didn't have any favor to ask, and he was powerless to grant any.

It was already 9 a.m. There were no Congressmen, officials or businessmen. Outside the house, the street was unusually empty of cars. It was not hard to like Joe de V. Although prone to hyperbolic statements, he was amiable to a fault. He dislikes confrontation. To him there was no gap that cannot be bridged. How come he was suddenly abandoned?

Later, we watched Jun Lozada on TV during the Senate hearing. No one knew him personally. But when he cried, I saw tearful eyes in the crowd. Why the flood of sympathy?

That he was articulate helped. Beyond that, people identifided themselves with him. It didn't matter that he owned up to even outright transgressions. His imperfections made him more credible.

In Lozada, they see a neighbor, relative or friend violated by the State. Not just his physical body but his person (nilapastangan ang pagkatao). And not just by thugs but by goons of the State. They, likewise, felt violated. They ( didn't ) swallow the line of the President's men: that Lozada was being protected when held captive during that long "joyride".

Why did the people believe Lozada? It's only his word against the others. Malcolm Gladwell ("The Tipping Point" ) explained it in his other book: "Blink" ---. People can tell if one is telling the truth or weaving a tale. Just like the students can tell if a professor will be a lousy one after his first lecture.

Gladwell calls this the power of thin slicing - "human beings are capable of making sense of situations based on the thinnest slice of experience." Is that why people knew whose voice was on the "Hello Garci" tape?. No "two tape" obfuscations from Secretary Ignacio Bunye or voice print analysis from Mike Defensor changed their mind. The "I am sorry" statement proved them right.. There are exceptions. But often, you can trust your rapid cognition. More information does not necessarily mean better.

What would the end game be?

It is hard to tell if this is the tipping point, as the impatient demand.. But history teaches "hinge factors" can cause events to take a sudden turn. Chance and stupidity can change the course of history. Military historian Erich Durschmied shows that many conflicts were decided by the caprice of weather, plain individual folly or incompetence.

From Agincourt to Mactan and Vietnam , the hinge factor was weather or human stupidity or the deadly combination of both. Armored French chevaliers were mowed down by foot soldiers and archers of Henry V because the French Commander ignored of "the soggy ground (that ) gripped horses' hooves like thick molasses."

What folly moved Magellan to disregard the long distance from his boats to shore because of low tide? Weighed down armor,cut by sharp corals, they were mowed down by kampilan and spears of Lapu-Lapu.

In Vietnam , the "hinge factor" was a single incident : South Vietnam 's police chief fired point blank into the head of a civilian. It was this one photograph, (brought into living rooms) confirmed to many Americans this was a war fought for the wrong reasons, in the wrong country on the wrong side… From that moment on, American generals had to fight world opinion instead of the Vietcong.

That stupid act done, in front of the camera, was matched by another stupid act of shooting into the head of a man in the tarmac of our airport That started the chain that unhinged the Marcos dictatorship.

Would seizing Lozada, out of the same airport and tarmac, unleashing government's wrath against this probinsyanong intsik, and paranoid reaction to businessmen's statements snowball?

It depends on how stupid Government's response will be. That text message threat to Ramon del Rosario, Jr. of Makati Business Club was a warning shot to all businessmen..

Will they be cowed?

But history has been as much marked by gallantry and heroism in.heroic feats of individual soldiers One patriotic act of a Filipino general prevented bloodshed by letting history run its course…in favor of the people.

Marine brigade commander, Gen. Artemio Tadiar, was ordered to shell Camp Aguinaldo when the crowds were still thin. I was at EDSA at that time. When Gen.Tadiar was named commander of the Subic Command, I asked: Why did he not obey?.

He bought time, he replied, by getting permission to "clarify the order" in Malacanang.

After getting final instructions to shell, he leisurely drove by round-about route back to his command. By then, the crowd has swollen. And he told Malacanang: shelling would massacre of thousands of civilians. He refused to have the blood of innocent people on his hands.

That was the end game for Malacanang. The hinge factor was the good sense and patriotism of a general. The rest is history. Will there be a repeat of this patriotic act?"

(E-mail: juan_mercado@boholchronicle.com)