Just as we thought the Cold War had thawed and the Communist vs.
Western Capitalism rivalry had subsided, a new race for world supremacy is shaping.
It is a geopolitical fight whose intensity and propaganda mileage could be as brutal and effective (respectively) as a Manny Pacquiao-Oscar de la Joya legendary fight.

China is the world's fastest growing economy with exports growing by an average of a friction-blistering 20% per annum while the America is facing perhaps a major recession. Of course, China is worried of a US depression because being the world's second largest exporter, China exports 20% of goods to the United States.

A US recession will also spread woes globally and affect China's other trading partners as well.

The Philippines is today's maiden being wooed by two ardent suitors.

Geopolitically, RP could no longer treat her foreign policy based on her "special relations" with the USA. Today, when RP makes foreign policy moves, she has to consider their impact on three countries rather than one: USA, China and Japan. The world is more complex now.

While the Balikatan USA-RP joint military exercises are in place, America no longer has permanent aerial or naval bases in the Philippines after the Clark and Subic closures.

Their only most common denominator is hatred for terrorism which previously earned medals for GMA in Washington.

But America's wide-toothed smile faded into gloom when RP decided to withdraw our troops from Iraq to save the life of one Filipino - Juan de la Cruz - and gain political mileage back at home for a beleaguered GMA. The recent tirades of America's own ambassador to Manila about corruption in the Philippines is just one case in point. In many occasions, America aid and grants have been publicly predicated on reforms - insinuating large scale corruption in a nation dubbed as "the most corrupt in Asia." The cancelled Bush-GMA lunch meetings in the recent ASPAC tell more stories than they want to convey publicly.

Besides, the American had long frowned on the inability - by consent or helplessness - of the GMA era to quell the 800 or so extra judicial killings of dissenters and activists nationwide. It is an atrocious record that in America's pro-democracy scorecard is indefensible.

China, on the other hand, had expertly turned the situation in her favor - by courting the Philippines with a promise of billions of dollars of ODA loans for the anemic infrastructure program of the Philippine Government. The aborted P12-billion ZTE-NBN contract was one of them. GMA left an ailing husband in April 2007 to sign the odious ZTE Contract in China - an agreement that had mysteriously lost itself in the labyrinth of bribery and corruption in high places.

It is even bandied about that the recent oil seismic joint survey between the Philippines-China and Vietnam is proof positive that Maria Clara is playing footsies with Mr. Chinaman. Washington is not smiling.

But America is herself partly to blame. Without cash flow, she has no chance competing with China's treasury that is falling over her own weight in cash - and extending loans to friendly countries like the Philippines. Besides unlike the relatively strict American way of granting loans and aid, China's liberal policy has made the mechanism attractive to assorted vultures in the country - salivating from fat commissions - shielded by unpopular Executive Agreements that the Chinese-funded deals will eventually fall under.

Make no mistake about it, the ZTE-NBN deal could yet be a proxy fight of sorts between the Americans and the Chinese. Whoever got the deal could potentially have the access to all government information passing through that nationalized broadband.

Can we spot the geopolitical colors here?

But cocky - China should not be. Her economy is now showing signs of vulnerability - as any economist will tell you - no one is immune from economic cycles including the Giant China. Rising cost of labor and raw materials plus ironically her own strengthening exchange rate are combining to collectively weaken China's heretofore colossal growth.

Eighty percent of its textile firms are losing or just breaking even, 500 of its 3,000 shoe factories in Guandong alone closed shop in a few months time. How much more can China withstand an overheated economy and the colatilla attached to a USA recession?

That's why the odds in the blockbuster fight are getting even.

But China is weakest now - in terms of political propaganda. While she is basking in glory over Beijing's sterling lead role now as Olympic host in August this year, there is political tension in China-controlled Tibet which had violent rallies lately against lack of freedom.

So far China has responded violently to the noisy 6 million Tibetans, leaving 99 dead so far and counting with the tension not ebbing. The revered Dalai Lama (on exile) but who has led the Tibetans for 68 years (making him the most experience political leader - eclipsing the longevity of Queen Elizabeth of England and Fidel Castro of Cuba) has threatened to resign if violence continues.

The shocking memories of the hundreds massacred at Tianenmen Square still traumatize the psyche of the whole world. It bared the fangs of what is bad about Communism.

Doing the same on her road to quasi democracy today - in Tibet - would make China look hypocritical to the world and drive away friends and create new enemies.

Washington could be laughing - quietly of course - behind the closets of the White House.

The acrimonious rivalry between two superpowers - America and China -could yet escalate from minor to major. What's in store for puny countries like the Philippines?

Poor puny pawns again in the giant geopolitical chessboard? Like night following day.

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