In the War Map of the World - the Philippines is now (in)famous for at least two things: two of the longest armed conflicts in the region. One, against the Muslims; the other, the Communists.

The twin conflicts that have dragged on for decades even raises perhaps an unfair accusation against the Armed Forces of the Philippines: that it does not really want a cessation of hostilities. Because it would seem that the war(s) are the only way to justify a high budget for the Defense and Military. It ranks among the high budgets for Economic, Social, Public Service and Debt Allocation categories.

But does a true Filipino really relish the thought of brothers killing brothers in a fratricidal war?

The negotiations between the GRP (Government) - Reds in (Netherlands) Europe apparently failed after years of sitting on the table and series of ceasefires. Today it seems the GRP-MILF Peace Negotiations in Mindanao brokered by Malaysia and watched by (IMT) International Monitoring Team (Malaysia, Libya, Brunei, Canada and Japan) hit the rocks with the withdrawal of Malaysian troops from Mindanao, complaining that the Peace Process is just taking too much Malaysian time and money.

Will the Ceasefire now be broken by renewed violent hostilities between the soldiers and the Muslims? Before the Peace Process in 2004, there were over 800 reported armed clashes - now down to less than 20 last year. Today, the 4 million Muslims of the (89 million Filipinos) will now be in fear - for no one wants war.

How fair is the accusation that the GMA Government only wanted to stall for time - and is not really sincere in attaining peace in Mindanao and that it will just pass on the problem to the successor administration in 2010? As they say, GMA is just dribbling but will not shoot the ball.

The Peace Process got stalled in December 2007 with the Documents on the Muslims' rights on their "ancestral domains" were set by the MILF to include (aside from the ARMM-Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao) some areas in Zamboanga, North Cotabato, Sibuyog, Sultan Kudarat and even as far as Palawan. The MILF is also insisting on the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity clause be recognized - that will effectively have the Muslims ruled by different laws other than the current Philippine constitution.

Those two issues, the GRP concludes, might need a plebiscite which, to our mind, will not pass due to the presence of the largely Christian Filipinos in the country. The objection would be: the act is a dismemberment of the Philippine republic. Is Malaysia seeing some insincerity on the side of RP? Or is Malaysia, as some pundits, claim just pressuring RP to withdraw its claim on oil-rich Sabah which Malaysia is also contesting by suddenly withdrawing from the Peace Process - even before its mandate ends in September 2008?

The pointing of dirty fingers to each other has just began - why is this so? Now the plot thickens as the Government granted bail to former MNLF Chairman Nur Misuari (after years of incarceration) - fueling suspicions Misuari could be the government's gubernatorial candidate in the coming ARMM polls.

The MNLF is reportedly close to Libya; the MILF to Malaysia. That equation can create a lot of conjectures. Has the Philippines burned her bridges with Malaysia? As we know, Libya and other OPEC nations - are dollar rich - and had openly signified a lot of financial support for a free Muslim Mindanao. What gives?

Is the issue larger than all that? The Balikatan war exercises of Pinoys -Yankees in Mindanao are intensifying - with their bosses in Manila and Washington speaking with common, angry voices against terrorism. What about the reported billions worth of mineral and oil resources in Mindanao (reaching up to Palawan) - how much of the equation are they part of - in this increasingly high stakes game of poker in war-ravaged "Promised" Land (siging gui-saaran, ba) of Mindanao.

There are rumors - some hotels and establishments in Mindanao are set up by or have connections with the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency). What is so hot about Mindanao, that some countries are showing extreme interest?

In a poker game, the one with a straight face, a mathematical mind and a photographic memory wins the bet.

But what about the poor four million Muslims who feel that since the Spanish times - they have been driven out of their land, oppressed by an alien Constitution and their culture and religion virtually ignored by mainstream society?

Collateral damage?

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