Political
scientists engaged for the 2010 presidential polls must take cognizance of four
factors: (1) surveys (2) voter segmentation (3) imagery of candidates and (4)
media coverage.
Surveys
from Social Weather Station and the Pulse Asia are reliable - but at best they
are just snapshots of political reality at a certain limited period of time. As
we earlier said - one month in a presidential campaign can change history.
In
January 2004, for instance, SWS survey placed GMA (28.7%) and FPJ (37.5%). A month
later (February 2004), the Pulse Asia showed GMA (31.9%) breathing down the neck
of FPJ (31.7%) when the issues of the latter's citizenship and illegitimate child
took center stage. That close battle ensued until the May 2004 actual polling.
Surveys
from these two credible entities are barometers to be heeded and plans adjusted
to - they are not for sale in order to set trends.
On
the other hand, voter segmentation is crucial in determining the direction of
scant resources of candidates. For instance, the vocal and visible segment of
the A-B-C market does not speak for the nation as they comprise only 18% of the
voter's percentage. The E market - poorest segment - is another 18% of total but
this is the voter bloc that is most easily swayed by money, threats and herding.
The
largest remaining and most significant is the D Market - the upper poor - which
is 60% of the market. This market segment, according to Senator Raul Roco's handlers,
is made up of two kinds: the "struggling poor" and the "resigned
poor". It is believed that the "struggling poor" can still be the
object of successful "persuasion" or campaigning.
Bear
in mind, likewise, that 60% of the age profile of the voters is comprised of people
below 30 years old, of which 100% of the new voter registrants will fall under.
Many progressive thinkers view this bloc as idealistic and open to reforms.
The
third factor of "imagery" is very crucial as well. Pundits believed
that Miriam Santiago's "dragon lady" image in 1992 nearly cost FVR the
presidency (if not, some say, for the Sulo Hotel Operation). In 1998, the Erap
"pro-poor" image won him 40% of the votes, the single biggest presidential
vote percentage from 1986-2004. Erap's image beat the incumbent's candidate Jose
de Venecia (blessed by so-called network) and the money of Danding Cojuangco.
Many
political pundits still believe FPJ's "masa" image actually "won"
but lost out to "Garci et.al" in that 2004 elections.
The
image-builders in the 2004 election had their hands full since it featured extremely
popular political titans: GMA and FPJ.
Cerge
Remonde featured GMA as a "smart, intelligent and telegenic" multi-lingual
pedigreed candidate who knows her economics. Rod Reyes of FPJ tried to downplay
the latter's lack of education and experience in public office by presenting the
movie actor as a "folk hero" - a non traditional politician who has
picked his lessons from the downfall of his pal Erap.
Lito
Banayo of Ping Lacson's camp tried very hard to sidetrack the Martial Law image
of Lacson into one of an Iron Hand but to signify strong "political will"
to make things happen. Yolanda Ong, on the other hand, packaged Raul Roco as an
advocate rather than a pure candidate. The campaign used much of the "text
brigade" and "internet campaign" long before American president-elect
Obama converted it into the state of the art. They obviously targeted the ABC
market segments (18%).
Finally,
media coverage did matter. Either media were playing favorites in 2004 or their
coverage merely reflected what was "good copy" and therefore attracted
readers, listeners or viewers for newspapers, radio and television respectively.
Let's take a look at a one month sample below (March 2004)
For
both TV and print news headliners FPJ got the best coverage (105 articles-news
coverage) followed closely by GMA (101); Lacson had (62) and Roco (54). Unerringly,
the results of the 2004 election also resulted in almost the same order as above
except that GMA "won" over FPJ.
But
being written about in newspapers (Inquirer, Star and Bulletin) is not always
good for candidates. All the four leading candidates got almost identical number
of page one articles: Roco (25), FPJ (23), GMA (21) and Lacson (20).
However,
independent observers recognized that 76 of these articles were slanted and 93
were judged neutral; 54 were negative articles and only 44 positive articles for
the above candidates.
In
that month, over 50% of the front page articles of the Inquirer, Star and Bulletin
were political in nature or 173 of the 312 articles with Bulletin leading the
ratio with 71 political articles of the 109 total; Inquirer 53 of 134 and Star
48 out of the 96.
Television,
which is now considered the most powerful political medium, was also politically
colored. In February 2004, the following had political stories in the news: ABS-CBN's
TV Patrol (20.11%), Insider (40.27%); GMA's Saksi (34.21%) and Frontpage (22.19%)'
Studio 23 (25.13%) and ANC's The World Tonight (41.9%).
Only
the sinking of the Super Ferry in March (following month) slowed down the percentage
coverage of politics in these TV stations.
These
four factors are as crucial today going to the presidential polls in 2010 as they
were in the year 2004. None of them have lost relative significance.
They
are factors worth pondering even this early.
(Statistics
all lifted from the Philippine Journalism Review).
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